DANGERS ARISING FROM APPLICATION OF THE PROBABILISTIC METHOD (AS INCLUDED IN SOLAS 2009 Ch.II-1) TO MEASURING LEVEL OF SAFETY OF CARGO SHIPS

Abstract

From application of a probability based methods to evaluating safety of ships arise certain dangers of hazardous conditions omissions and results misinterpretations. In this paper a few areas in which these dangers occur are identified and described. The purpose of this work was to highlight these areas and suggest a way forward for developing methods for evaluation of safety of ships that would address these identified dangers. In this work the Author focuses on mathematical analysis of selected equations provided in the currently used method as included in SOLAS 2009 Convention. The following factors were selected for evaluation: pi – probability of a selected damage occurring, si – probability of surviving a selected damage, A – Attained Subdivision Index and R – Required Subdivision Index. From the performed analysis the conclusions are drawn that there are numerous areas where application of the investigated method may lead to dangers to maintaining controllable level of ship safety.